While Israel’s streets filled with chanting crowds and its army wrestled with mutiny in the ranks, Hamas was quietly plotting the deadliest day in modern Israeli history.
Intelligence from Hamas’ Al Qassam Brigades, brought to light by Lt. Col. (res.) Yehonatan Dahoah Halevi of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, shows the terror group had already decided in mid 2023 that the chaos inside Israel was the perfect moment to go for the kill.
Their July 2023 assessment was blunt: the political crisis and military unrest had crippled the IDF. To Hamas, the country looked exhausted, friendless abroad, and unable to rally its strength.
The plan to wipe out Jewish communities was no sudden brainstorm. Hamas began shaping it in 2014 as a tunnel invasion. Israel’s border barrier forced them to switch to a ground assault, and in September 2021 under Yahya Sinwar they signed off on “Operation Ensuring the End of Days” — a blueprint for the conquest of “Palestine” and the eradication of Jewish presence.
By early 2022, the plan was complete. Hamas first aimed to unleash it during the High Holidays while Yair Lapid was Prime Minister. When the right wing coalition took power at the end of that year, they saw a new challenge but also a gift. They believed the government’s policies would burn bridges abroad, leaving Israel isolated when the blow landed.
The moment ripened in 2023. Judicial reform protests spiraled into refusals of reserve duty, a crack that Hamas leaders believed could split the IDF open. On July 25 Hamas military intelligence sent Sinwar a report saying the army’s readiness was eroding fast. The advice was to hold fire until the crisis hit its peak.
Over the next two months, Hamas media hammered away at claims of a “nonexistent army.” Sinwar studied every protest, every sign of weakness, waiting for the perfect moment. He chose a Jewish holiday for maximum disruption and draped the coming bloodshed in the language of defending Al Aqsa, a call meant to ignite uprisings across the Arab world.
October 7 was that moment.
Dahoah Halevi’s conclusion cuts deep. While Israel was distracted, divided and turning its fury inward, Hamas was watching from across the fence, counting down the days until it could strike with the precision of a predator closing in on wounded prey.
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